ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE AUG 25 1998
 
T-NUMBERS FOR DANIELLE HAVE REMAINED THE SAME FOR THE PAST 6
HOURS...THUS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS.  DANIELLE
HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WITH THE SYSTEM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/20.  A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PROBABLY
KEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  HOWEVER... THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE MAY BE GENERATING A
SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK AND MAY BE THE REASON WHY THE
TRACK HAS TENDED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PAST OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GFDL
SOLUTION.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENSEMBLE AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE GDFL SOLUTION.  ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER OF DANIELLE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING
DANIELLE CLOSER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THEREFORE...IF A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NECESSARY IT WOULD BE ISSUED SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 17.8N  48.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N  51.4W    80 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.8N  55.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  59.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.3N  63.6W    95 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.9N  71.8W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN