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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE AUG 25 1998
 
DANIELLE IS A SMALL HURRICANE IN TERMS OF ITS AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUT IT HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND TAFB ESTIMATED THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 75 KNOTS. DANIELLE
HAS A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WITH THE SYSTEM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS ALSO
INDICATED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO
ABOUT 107 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/18.  A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PROBABLY
KEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR EVEN A LITTLE
MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE PRESENT COURSE AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY
MOST OF THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENSEMBLE BUT CLOSER TO THE GDFL SOLUTION.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER
OF DANIELLE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z GDFL RUN.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING DANIELLE CLOSER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS
AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 16.9N  46.2W    75 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  49.0W    80 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  52.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  56.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N  60.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 22.0N  67.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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