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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE AUG 25 1998

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE
SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...
KGWC ARE 4.0 AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS.  DANIELLE IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO 100 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. MODELS IN GENERAL SUGGEST THAT THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH. THIS IS EMPHASIZED BY GFDL WHICH TURNS THE DANIELLE
WESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN THE GFDL AND LBAR. 

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.5N  44.2W    70 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N  47.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  51.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N  55.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  59.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N  67.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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