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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998
 
A SMALL...AND CURRENTLY WEAKENING...CDO HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH NOW
2.5...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ON THIS
ADVISORY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHILE FURTHER WEST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN DANIELLE AND BONNIE.
 
THE MOTION IS 285/18 KT.  THE 12Z AVN AGAIN SHOWS A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD
KEEP DANIELLE FROM RECURVING AND...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...COULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE WEST WITH
ACCELERATION.  THROUGH DECREASED SHEAR IT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
INTENSIFICATION.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC TRACK AT 48 AND 72 HOURS IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  

FOLLOWING THE SHIPS SCHEME...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE
BY 72 HOURS.  SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE SEEM TO BE ABLE TO
STRENGTHEN...AND WEAKEN...RAPIDLY.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 14.4N  38.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.1N  41.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.9N  45.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.8N  48.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  52.6W    55 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  60.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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