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TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 42 KNOT
1500 FT WIND SPEED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM THE AIR FORCE
PLANE...AS WELL AS THE OIL RIG REPORTS AND A HURRICANE RESEARCH
DIVISION ANALYSIS WHICH GIVES 37 KNOTS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.  SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD BANDING ALTHOUGH THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE FORECAST IS FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE 18 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CENTER COULD REFORM TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BANDING
FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.  IN ANY CASE...ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS
SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS
THIS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 26.2N  95.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 26.8N  96.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  98.6W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N 100.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N 103.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     24/1800Z DISSIPATED INLAND 
 
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