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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS CLOSED OFF A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WE ARE UPGRADING
THE DISTURBED AREA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS
WE HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING A WELL-DEFINED CENTE FOR VERY LONG.  THE
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS NO KNOWN REASON
TO PREVENT INTENSIFICATION.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
MOST OF THE TEXAS COAST ON THIS BASIS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 26.2N  96.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     23/1200Z 28.2N 102.8W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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