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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SABLE ISLAND SHOW THAT THE CENTER PASSED
JUST SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION AT 02Z.  A 65 KNOT WIND FROM AN OIL RIG
JUST EAST OF SABLE ISLAND...ANEMOMETER ELEVATION OVER 100
METERS...INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/30.  A MOSTLY EASTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IT IS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  BONNIE IS
QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 44.8N  54.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 45.0N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     31/0600Z 45.0N  39.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  30.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     01/0600Z 43.0N  22.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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