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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/24.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
HAVE THE STORM ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT
IS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.
 
THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING.  THE SYSTEM IS
TAKING ON MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH THE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THE WIND SPEED IS CARRIED AT 45
KNOTS THROUGH 12 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 42.3N  63.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     30/1800Z 46.0N  49.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
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