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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/22.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
HAVE THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT IS
PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS REMAINING ON THE WEST HALF OF THE STORM...THE
SYSTEM STILL HAS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAN EXTRATROPICAL. 
THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL. 
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 40.9N  67.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 43.0N  63.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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