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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998
 
RECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING
MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LATEST POSITION ESTIMATE
FROM WAKEFIELD RADAR SHOWS SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ALL
OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MOVE THE CENTER NEAR CAPE CODE
IN 30 HOURS AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN JUST OVER 36 HOURS.  THE
AVIATION MODEL DOES ALMOST THE SAME.  THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE
CENTER OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER WITHIN
ABOUT 60 NMI OF CAPE COD AND ALMOST AS CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA. 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE
BASIS OF THIS FORECAST TRACK.
 
REPORTS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM CHESAPEAKE LIGHT C-MAN ALONG
WITH 84 KNOTS FLIGHT LEVEL WIND FROM RECON AND 64 KNOTS FROM
WAKEFIELD RADAR ALLOW KEEPING BONNIE A HURRICANE FOR A WHILE LONGER
...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 36.5N  74.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 37.8N  73.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 40.2N  71.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 42.0N  66.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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