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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A WIND OF 82 KNOTS AT 10000 FEET
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  TYPICALLY...THE WINDS AT 850 MB ARE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AND ARE THEN REDUCED BY FRICTION AT THE SURFACE.
THEREFORE BONNIE IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE ON THIS
ADVISORY.  THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  LITTLE ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE BONNIE IS MOVING OVER MARGINAL
SSTS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING.
 
BONNIE HAS MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A REASONABLE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07.  ACCELERATION WILL OCCUR LATER IN
THE PERIOD.  THIS TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GFDL.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 36.2N  75.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 37.2N  74.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 41.5N  67.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 43.0N  60.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 44.0N  43.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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