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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998
 
DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OCRACOKE ISLAND AND DIAMOND
SHOALS LIGHTHOUSE INDICATE THAT THE WINDS IN BONNIE HAVE PICKED UP A
BIT AT THE SURFACE AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE BACK OVER
WATER.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE.  THAT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT BONNIE
COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STATUS.
 
DOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT
8 KT ALONG A HEADING OF 45 DEGREES.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN ACCELERATION OFFSHORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE
EAST...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE GFDL VERY
CLOSELY.  THE ETA AND UKMET SHOW A TRACK NEAR/OVER THE COAST AND
WITH THAT POSSIBILITY IN MIND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE RIGHT...SOUTHEAST...OF THE CENTER
OF BONNIE.
  
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 35.8N  75.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 36.8N  74.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 38.6N  73.1W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 40.7N  69.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 42.3N  64.1W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 44.0N  48.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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