ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998
 
LATEST RECON FIX GIVES A MOTION OF 320/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS MOTION SUGGESTS MORE OF A NORTHWARD DIRECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
IMMEDIATE TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH CONTINUES A
SLOWER NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST 12 HOUR MOTION AVERAGING 340 DEGREES.
PERHAPS THE EXTENSION OF THE WARNING TO EDISTO BEACH WILL TURN OUT
TO HAVE BEEN UNNECESSARY...BUT THERE IS NO POINT IN AGONIZING ABOUT
IT.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RAPID ACCELERATION AFTER 24 HOURS
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON AT ABOUT 18Z.
 
THE LAST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 964 MB.  THE WINDS
APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED SOME SINCE THE 114 KNOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT
01Z...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE MAY BE REFORMING
AND THE WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 100 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 32.4N  77.6W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 34.2N  78.1W   100 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/0600Z 36.0N  76.0W    85 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1800Z 38.5N  72.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 40.5N  66.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 46.0N  50.0W    55 KTS
 
 
NNNN