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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998
 
WHILE THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD ABOUT 325/330 DEGREES AT 14
KT...SATELLITE PICTURES CLEARLY SHOW SOME POTENTIALLY DECEPTIVE
NORTHWESTWARD WOBBLING OF THE EYE ALONG THAT TRACK.  SOME EVIDENCE
OF AN EYEWALL IS NOW SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED AN OPEN...ELLIPTICAL SHAPE EYE BEFORE THEY DEPARTED A FEW
HOURS AGO.  THEY MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS A LITTLE IN EXCESS OF
100 KT TWICE TODAY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 1738Z...THE LAST FIX BEFORE ABOUT 00Z...WAS ONCE AGAIN 963 MB. 
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...THE NEXT MEASURED PRESSURE
COULD BE LOWER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT.
 
THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 
ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR PASSING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS GENERALLY
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION.  WHILE
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...THE
CONSENSUS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSELY
FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  OUR TRACK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS IS
OFFSET ABOUT 45 NMI TO THE RIGHT OF 6 HOURS AGO.  ALL DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE EXCEPT NOGAPS IS EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE...TO THE RIGHT.
THESE MODEST CHANGES ARE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL TURN BONNIE TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE ROMAIN TO MURRELLS INLET IS
CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS ADVISORY.

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 30.5N  76.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 32.3N  76.9W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 34.5N  76.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 36.7N  74.9W    85 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.8N  71.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.5N  59.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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