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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998
 
MODEST CHANGES TO TRACK THIS MORNING CAN BE INTERPRETED IN TWO WAYS.
WHILE BONNIE HAS ACCELERATED FROM 10 KT TO ABOUT 14 KT...SUGGESTING
THAT IT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES STATES...THE HEADING HAS STAYED ABOUT THE SAME OR
EVEN EDGED 5 DEGREES TO THE LEFT...ARGUING FOR A DELAY IN ANY TURN.
ALTERNATELY...THESE VARIATIONS COULD BE TEMPORARY. IN ANY
CASE...BONNIE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA AND
ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR A POWERFUL HURRICANE THERE.
 
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
MOST FORECASTS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS
FORECAST IMPLIES THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON THE NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR MIDNIGHT AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS NEAR DAWN TOMORROW.
 
WESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTOR HAS LED TO A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE TO BONNIE ON
SATELLITE PICTURES.  WHILE THERE IS NO EYE APPARENT ON
SATELLITE...OR TO THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE RECON RECENTLY
REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT...DESPITE
THE APPEARANCE...BONNIE HAS PROBABLY NOT CHANGED MUCH IN INTENSITY.
INDEED...AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF THE GFDL...COUPLED WITH AN OCEAN
MODEL...INDICATES THAT SOME STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 29.5N  75.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.3N  76.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 33.8N  77.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 36.4N  76.3W    90 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/1200Z 38.3N  74.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 41.5N  66.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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