ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 24 1998 BONNIE LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT LATEST RECON REPORTED 962 MB WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS 18 HOURS AGO. 117 KNOTS WAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF THE GPS DROPS NEAR THE 900 MB LEVEL IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR...BUT WITH BONNIE YET TO CROSS THE WARM GULF STREAM WE WILL MAINTAIN CAT THREE INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT AND THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE NAVY NOGAPS HAS BONNIE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE THE GFDL RECURVES THE HURRICANE AND HAS IT MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE GFDL THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVE. HOWEVER...IF THE PREDICTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DOES NOT OCCUR...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT BONNIE COULD MOVE TO THE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK. NOTE...THE NHC INTERNET SITE IS BEING OVERLOADED...FORCING OCCASIONAL SHUTDOWNS. SOME OF ITS HURRICANE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AT WWW.FEMA.GOV/HLT/TROP.HTML MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 27.2N 73.1W 100 KTS 12HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 73.8W 100 KTS 24HR VT 26/0000Z 30.0N 75.0W 100 KTS 36HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 75.8W 100 KTS 48HR VT 27/0000Z 34.5N 76.0W 100 KTS 72HR VT 28/0000Z 38.5N 73.0W 85 KTS NNNN