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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998

DATA FROM ONE OF THE P-3 AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY...BUT OUR INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS CATEGORY THREE
STATUS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 954 MB.
 
BONNIE HAS WOBBLED AROUND A LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT A
GENERAL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF BONNIE GETTING TRAPPED BY A NARROW RIDGE
ALONG 36N LATITUDE OR SO.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THEN SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE
LEFT.  THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE
GFDL...DEEP LAYER BAM...AND UKMET MODELS.  THE NAVY NOGAPS IS WELL
TO THE LEFT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE AVIATION IS WELL TO THE
RIGHT INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEIR VIGILANCE AND MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES.  WE HAVE INSERTED A
STATEMENT INTO THE ADVISORY THAT A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MONDAY.
 
ANOTHER MULTI-AIRCRAFT MISSION INVOLVING AIRCRAFT FROM BOTH NOAA AND
NASA WILL PROVIDE EXTENSIVE SAMPLING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 
THEIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE INITIALIZATION AND BRING
THE TRACK PREDICTIONS TOGETHER...AND IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION.  WE HAVE CAREFULLY LOOKED AT
THE AVAILABLE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET AND IT SEEMS TO FIT WELL WITH
THE 1800Z AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZATION...WHICH WAS THE BACKGROUND
FIELD FOR THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 25.1N  71.9W   100 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 25.7N  72.3W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N  73.4W   105 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.4N  74.8W   110 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 30.0N  76.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  80.0W   110 KTS
 
 
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