ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998 AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...A SIGNIFICANT DROP OF 15 MB OVER 8 HOURS. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED TO MATCH THE PRESSURE DROP...BUT THEY WILL. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...GIVEN THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE LOOKING OUTFLOW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08..A DISTINCT SLOW DOWN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALL CURRENT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BONNIE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...STEERED...IN PART...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF BONNIE. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GFDL MODEL RUN. THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND THE UKMET MODEL IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT OF LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...ONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE UNTIL THE EXPECTED TURN MATERIALIZES. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE PROBABILITIES ALONG THE CAROLINAS HAVE INCREASED. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.6N 71.5W 90 KTS 12HR VT 23/1200Z 24.3N 72.8W 95 KTS 24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.6N 74.0W 100 KTS 36HR VT 24/1200Z 27.1N 74.8W 105 KTS 48HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 75.4W 110 KTS 72HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 76.0W 110 KTS NNNN