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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998

ALL CURRENT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BONNIE SHOULD TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS TURN IS ALSO FORECAST BY OUR STATE OF THE ART GFDL MODEL. THIS
LESSENS ANY POSSIBLE THREAT OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BONNIE UNTIL THE EXPECTED TURN MATERIALIZES.  ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE POTENTIAL THREAT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST REMAINS. 

BONNIE HAS SLOWED DOWN...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 300/11.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN
THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A SLOW
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER MODELS. 

NOTE: LATEST NOGAPS KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF BONNIE NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE VERSION OF THE GFDL.  

LATEST RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE WINDS ARE 80 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 977 MB. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES
BONNIE A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON-SCALE AS INDICATED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 23.3N  71.0W    80 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 24.1N  72.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 25.3N  74.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.5N  75.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  76.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 30.0N  76.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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