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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI AUG 21 1998
 
BONNIE CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A VERY
COLD TOPPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND INCREASED BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS.  RECON RECENTLY FOUND A 991 MB
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW STILL LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  BONNIE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE WILL BREAK DOWN
LATER IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED
AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.  THE TIMING OF THIS
NORTHWARD MOTION...OF COURSE...IS CRITICAL.  OUR CURRENT TRACK LEANS
TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE UKMET...NAVY NOGAPS...AND AVN ARE
CONSISTENTLY TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK.
 
BONNIE COULD STILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE EAST U.S. COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WE ARE INSERTING A STATEMENT TO THE
EFFECT ...RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BONNIE AT THIS TIME.
 
THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET AND BOTH NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT ARE FLYING A
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND BONNIE AND WILL BE DEPLOYING
SIXTY DROPSONDES OVER THE ENVIRONMENT TO INITIALIZE THE NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 21.4N  68.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N  70.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.3N  72.3W    80 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 24.3N  73.9W    90 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  75.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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