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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED AUG 19 1998
 
LAST LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS BROAD
AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.  THE BEST GUESS OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A CURRENT BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO RE-DEVELOP CLOSER
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE A SIGN OF STRENGTHENING.
THE OUTFLOW APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
WHILE 00Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH INFRARED
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE CENTER MAY BE
TRYING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
295/16 KNOTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL AGREES ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND
IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR AND THE GFDL.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE FRINGE OF THE CYCLONE COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WE HAVE BEEN
UNABLE TO COORDINATE THE WATCH WITH THE FRENCH ISLANDS.
 
GUINEY/MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 16.5N  52.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.6N  54.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.9N  57.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.2N  61.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.4N  64.2W    55 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  71.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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