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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED AUG 19 1998
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AS THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME MORE
CONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.   UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS...SUCH AS THOSE ANALYZED BY THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES ON THE INTERNET...APPEAR MOSTLY
FAVORABLE OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF
SLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  THE STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...INDICATES STEADY
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT MORE
CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE OF THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY
FORECASTING. 

THE CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
COMPARED TO THE EARLIER CENTER FIXES...PARTIALLY REPRESENTS A
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES.  OUR BEST
INITIAL MOVEMENT ESTIMATE IS 295/17 AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE THE NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO
SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 16.0N  51.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N  53.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.8N  56.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  60.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  70.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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