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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998
 
THE RECON FLIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING TWICE PROVIDED CENTER FIXES...
EACH WITH 1012 MB FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A MORE RECENT SHIP
REPORT FROM NEAR THE CENTER AT 00Z IMPLIES LITTLE CHANGE.  TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE FLIGHT CREW...BUT ONLY IN THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NORTH OF THE NOW ALMOST ENTIRELY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY NOW AT MOST 45 KT. 
INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 300/13 KT.
 
THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF ALEX ARE COMPLICATED BY A
FRACTURED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE WNW OF ALEX AND WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATING THAT YET ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ALOFT...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED.  REMARKABLY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RELATIVELY UNIFORM...SUGGESTING A WNW TO NW TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THOSE TRACKS AND
SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.
  
ALEX/S INTENSITY WILL BE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF HOW IT NEGOTIATES A
TRACK AROUND...OR THROUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. 
WITHOUT HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THAT INTERACTION WILL PLAY
OUT...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL SHOW NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 19.1N  57.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 20.1N  59.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.7N  61.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 23.6N  64.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  66.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.5N  69.0W    45 KTS
  
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