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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998
 
ALEX HAS NOT INTENSIFY AS FORECAST. STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHERLY
SHEAR DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS BEEN
RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX
UNTIL 72 HOURS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. MOREOVER... WEAKENING MAY
BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND
IF ALEX SURVIVES...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.  IF ALEX
BECOMES COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND WEAKENS FURTHER... THE SYSTEM COULD
MOVE MORE TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME
PREDOMINANT OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT
VERY HOSTILE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 15.5N  49.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.7N  51.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N  53.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N  55.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  57.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  61.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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