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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY AS A LARGE
CDO TYPE FEATURE IS OBSCURING THE LOWER CLOUDS.  TAFB AND SAB ARE
OVER 60 NMI APART IN THEIR 0545Z POSITION ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...290/11...MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE POSITION IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING SOME SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  IF THE
CENTER IS ACTUALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALEX COULD
BE STRONGER THAN WE ARE ESTIMATING AND ALSO MOVING WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.

THE TRACK MODELS ARE ALL CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOW A MOSTLY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR AND AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...NOTING DTHAT THE STORM COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE
CENTER LOCATION.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 16.2N  48.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.7N  50.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N  52.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  54.8W    60 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  57.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N  61.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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