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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 30 1998

THE STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS-ORGANIZED THAN IT DID 24 HOURS
AGO...AND MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY SHEARING OVER ALEX...ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR JUST AHEAD.  SINCE THE
SYSTEM HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...NO CHANGE
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
THEREAFTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL GIVES A SIMILAR INTENSITY FORECAST.

MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AROUND 13 KT.  ACCORDING TO
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE/VORTMAX IS
PREDICTED TO BE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALEX IN 2-3 DAYS. 
THIS FEATURE...IF IT VERIFIES...WOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN PAINTS A
SIMILAR PICTURE.  HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFDL MODEL RUN SHOWS A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATTER MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST.         

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 14.5N  44.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 14.8N  46.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.3N  49.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 16.8N  54.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N  59.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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