ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUL 29 1998 DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT TERRIBLY WELL-ORGANIZED. THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT IS THAT THE CONVECTION IS FORMING CLOSER TO THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT ALEX IS MOVING INTO A LIGHTER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER ...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW AND THE DRIER AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF ALEX IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. OVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY HEALTHY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER SST/S AHEAD AND IMPROVING UPPER ENVIRONMENT. A NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC OFFICE DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A 10 METER/6 MINUTE WIND OF 31 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1013 MB AT 18Z. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR CURRENT TROPICAL STORM RADII. THE CENTER HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY. CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A TAD SOUTH AND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE AVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE THE SOUTHERN-MOST TRACKS. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FEATURES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE LAST ADVISORY. GUINEY/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.9N 41.9W 35 KTS 12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 44.2W 40 KTS 24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.5N 47.1W 50 KTS 36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.3N 49.7W 55 KTS 48HR VT 31/1800Z 16.0N 52.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 56.5W 65 KTS NNNN