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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 29 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF ALEX IS WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS
SUGGESTS WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
ALEX IS MOVING INTO A COL IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A
WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT ANALYSES
FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES.

THUS...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESERVED.    
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/17 KNOTS.  THE 12Z TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A BIT LESS SCATTER THAN EARLIER WITH MOST
INDICATING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD
SPEED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY QUESTION REGARDING THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
25N55W WHICH WOULD IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.
IF THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO PROMINENT...THEN ALEX MAY BE FORCED ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK...PER THE 06Z GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
THEREAFTER. 

GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 14.1N  41.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.6N  43.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.1N  46.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.7N  49.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N  52.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  56.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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