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TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 29 1998

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...BUT THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 35 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX IS
MOVING INTO A COL IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  SO...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.  THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL
HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...GUIDANCE.  

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...
CURRENTLY THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SMALL.  THUS THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE NOT ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LARGE
AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE
OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.  DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THE
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DEVELOPING SOON. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY BEING DRAWN
SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF ALEX...FROM A TROUGH THAT IS NOW NORTH OF THE
STORM.  HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS ALSO SHOW A STRONG MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 50W IN DAY OR TWO.  IF
THE ABOVEMENTIONED VORTICITY FEATURE IS NOT SO PROMINENT...THEN ALEX
MAY BE FORCED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  INDEED...THIS IS WHAT IS
SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFDL GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

PASCH    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 13.8N  39.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.2N  42.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.8N  45.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N  47.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N  54.0W    65 KTS
 
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