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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 27 1998
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED AROUND THE CENTER.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE SYSTEM IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS...AND CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
INTENSITY MODEL. 

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES PLACE THE CENTER A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD... 
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE AVIATION MODEL
BRINGS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROF/LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 40W.    
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECELERATION DUE TO 
THIS FEATURE. 

GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 12.2N  27.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N  30.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.6N  33.9W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.4N  36.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N  40.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N  47.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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