ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUL 27 1998 SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS A WELL- DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND WE ARE IDENTIFYING IT AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE. TRACKING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS GIVES A MOTION OF 280/24. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS STEERING CURRENTS MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 280/20. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS. THERE WERE THREE SHIPS AT 06Z IN THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS THAT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 11.5N 27.0W 25 KTS 12HR VT 28/0000Z 12.0N 29.9W 30 KTS 24HR VT 28/1200Z 12.8N 33.9W 35 KTS 36HR VT 29/0000Z 13.1N 36.9W 40 KTS 48HR VT 29/1200Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 30/1200Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KTS NNNN