ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018
Corrected to remove G-IV flight reference for this afternoon
Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no
longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming
throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is
reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next
several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or
moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast
is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term
to account for the current intensity.
Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A
fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a
large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean.
However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman
to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing
considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble
closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much
farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the
guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at
long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much
support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it
seems to be an outlier at this time.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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