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Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Gordon continues to weaken as it passes near Jackson, Mississippi,
and the initial intensity has been reduced to a possibly generous
25 kt. Additional weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther
inland, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area
in about 48 h. The remnant low is then expected to become
extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone over the central
United States by Saturday. Although Gordon has weakened, the threat
of heavy rainfall and flooding will continue for the next few days.

The initial motion estimate is 320/12.  Gordon should continue
northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 h
as it moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  After
that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn northward and
northeastward as it recurves into the westerlies.  The new forecast
track is similar to the previous one.  However, during the first
48 h it lies to the east of the various consensus models due to a
westward shift in the guidance since the last advisory.

This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Gordon.  Future information on Gordon can be found
in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32
KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Even though Gordon is weakening, heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central
Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.  This rainfall will
cause flash flooding across portions of these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 32.3N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 33.3N  91.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  06/1200Z 33.9N  92.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0000Z 34.5N  93.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 48H  07/1200Z 35.3N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 37.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/1200Z 39.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1200Z 43.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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