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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with
deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more
separated from the low-level center.  However, there is still enough
organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a
little longer.  The most recent satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt.  Ernesto
will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become
post-tropical this evening.  Little change in strength is predicted
during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly
across the northern Atlantic.  Global models indicate that the
cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the
system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central
portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt.  Now that the
system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid
northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  There has been little change to the track
guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday.  Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 49.1N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 51.1N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/1800Z 53.2N  14.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0600Z 54.8N   5.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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