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Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just
south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this
morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream,
and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to
maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass
around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still
near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of
low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically
an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics.

No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity
forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly
northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or
its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a
fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now
crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is
expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows
Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very
possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed
increases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 44.5N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 46.2N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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