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Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018

Satellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data confirm the
sharp open-trough pattern that was indicated by earlier aircraft
reconnaissance wind data. Although Beryl has a well-defined, tight
vortex noted in GOES-16 hi-res visible satellite imagery, that
feature appears to be located above the surface. The latest radar
data from Martinique also shows little if any rotation in the most
recent convective burst that has developed just north of the
aforementioned vortex. Given that the remnants of Beryl are now
moving at a forward speed of at least 23 kt, it is highly unlikely
that the very small circulation is closed at the surface.  The
intensity remains at 40 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance 56-kt
flight-level wind data and the latest burst of convection that has
developed in the same general location as those earlier winds. Now
that Beryl is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone, the
reconnaissance mission for this evening has been canceled.

On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of
Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves
through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical
wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be
light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak
upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the
favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with
sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions
conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although
Beryl's low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted
by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform.

The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl
should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next
12 hours, passing over the Leeward Islands tonight and moving into
the northeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. Although Beryl is no
longer a tropical cyclone, advisories will continue to be issued on
this system until the tropical storm watch for Dominica has been
discontinued.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Dominica tonight.
Elsewhere across the Leeward Islands, strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rains are possible tonight and Monday, and these conditions
are expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 15.2N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  09/0600Z 16.2N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE
 24H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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