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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018
500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018

Beryl has not changed much in appearance since this morning.  The
storm still has a tight low-level circulation with all of the deep
convection displaced to the east and southeast of the center.
Scatterometer data missed the circulation this morning, and we still
do not have a good handle on Beryl's maximum winds.  Dvorak CI
numbers are now 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial
intensity will be lowered to 45 kt, which could still be generous.

Beryl seems to be accelerating sooner than initially anticipated,
and the 12-hour motion is now west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt.  Not
only is the cyclone moving a little faster now, but the track
guidance is also showing a faster future motion than it had been
indicating.  The overall guidance envelope has also shifted
slightly northward.  Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the
multi-model consensus aids, and it has been shifted ever-so-slightly
to the north as well.

With the low-level easterlies around Beryl increasing, and the
cyclone expected to run into upper-level westerlies in about 24
hours, the deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen over the next
couple of days.  This increased shear and nearby dry air will likely
cause Beryl to continue weakening, and the updated NHC intensity
forecast now shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by
the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, if not sooner.  Beryl
is then likely to open up into a trough shortly after 48 hours,
which is shown by all the global models.  It should be noted that
despite the expected weakening, some of the global models show deep
convection reigniting due to upper-level divergence to the east of
a trough, and even as an open wave the system will still likely
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward
Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several
days.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl has continued to weaken today, but there is still a chance
of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from
wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches
remain in effect.  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will
also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week.

2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual
uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and
confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than
normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 12.7N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 13.4N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 14.6N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 15.9N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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