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Tropical Depression Norma Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017
Norma continues to produce a small area of deep convection near
and to the east of the estimated low-level center. The initial
intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a
blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Norma
is currently over 26 deg C SSTs, and it will be headed toward even
cooler waters during the next couple of days. These unfavorable
oceanic conditions combined with a dry atmosphere should cause Norma
to continue weakening, and the depression will likely become a
remnant low in about 24 hours or sooner. The global models show the
remnant low opening into a trough by 48 hours.
The depression is moving westward at 4 kt. A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion within the low-level flow is expected until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 21.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.8N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 22.8N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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