ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Norma's cloud pattern consists of a tight circulation with some shapeless clusters of deep convection to the east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The circulation is already moving over cooler water, so the weakening process should continue. Norma will likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours or even sooner. The initial motion appears to be toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 6 kt. Most of the track models move the cyclone or its remnants to the northwest and north around a subtropical ridge over Mexico until dissipation. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and is in the middle of the track model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 21.7N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 21.8N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 22.2N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 23.0N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN
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