ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 After Norma's brief resurgence this morning, cloud tops have begun to warm. Dvorak classifications are a little lower than they were this morning, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast. The tropical storm should continue to gradually weaken while crossing over progressively cooler SSTs. The new NHC forecast shows Norma becoming a remnant low in 36 h and dissipating entirely by 72 h, in line with the latest guidance from the GFS and ECMWF. Norma is moving slowly west, and the initial motion estimate is 270/5 kt. The cyclone should continue moving west for the next day or so, south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific. Once Norma becomes a remnant low, the low-level remnants are still expected to turn more northward. The models have shifted a little more toward the southwest for the first 24 h the forecast, so the official forecast has been nudged in that direction, and remains about halfway between the ECMWF and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 21.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 21.5N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 21.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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