ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Norma Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172017 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Norma is a small tropical cyclone, with one main curved band in the eastern semicircle and an easy-to-find center. Dvorak estimates are virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago and support the same initial wind speed of 45 kt. Norma should begin to gradually weaken later today as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable airmass. The latest forecast is a blend of the previous NHC prediction and the model consensus since guidance is tightly clustered on the future weakening. Most of the global models show convection disappearing within 2 days, so Norma is now forecast to become a remnant low by that time. Norma is now moving west-northwestward, continuing to be steered by a ridge over northwestern Mexico. This general track is expected for the next few days with a gentle curve toward the north-northwest predicted as Norma moves around the southwestern portion of the ridge. The new forecast is shifted westward, on the western side of the model consensus closer to the ECMWF, which had the more offshore track idea for some time before the bulk of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.4N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 21.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 22.2N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 22.8N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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