| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane MAX (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Max Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Max continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from
Acapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier
infrared satellite imagery has become obscured.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the
hurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity
is set slightly higher at 70 kt.

Radar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north
of due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt.
Max is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending
southwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force
the hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the
coast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight.  After
landfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico.

With sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively
low shear, the environment appears conducive for further
strengthening before Max reaches the coast.  The new NHC forecast
closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance
and shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours
than was indicated in the previous advisory.  Max will weaken
quickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max.
Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 16.3N  99.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.5N  99.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 16.9N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 31-Dec-2017 12:10:36 UTC