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Tropical Storm MAX (Text)


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Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

A 2236Z SSMIS pass showed that Max has a banding mid-level eye, and
a partial eye has been noted in radar imagery from Acapulco.  Given
this improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 50
kt, leaning toward the latest Dvorak classification from SAB and the
UW-CIMSS ADT estimate.  Since Max has developed some inner-core
structure, further strengthening seems likely, with the only
apparent limiting factor being land interaction in 12 to 24 hours.
The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward, and now shows Max
reaching a 60-kt intensity in 12 h.  Since some additional
strengthening is possible before landfall, Max could become a
hurricane before reaching the coast of Mexico.  Quick weakening is
forecast after landfall, and Max is expected to dissipate by 36
hours.

The initial motion estimate is 065/03.  Max should be steered
east-northeastward to northeastward toward the coast by a mid-level
ridge centered to the tropical cyclone's southeast.  The new NHC
track has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one,
toward the latest consensus aids.

Given the new intensity forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued
for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  In addition to
the increased wind threat, Max will produce life-threatening
flooding rainfall in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 16.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 16.7N 100.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 16.9N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:10:23 UTC