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Tropical Storm OTIS (Text)


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Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Otis continues to exceed my expectations from yesterday.  The center
appears to be well embedded within a persistent central dense
overcast, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have
increased.  On this basis, the intensity has been increased to 45
kt.  Otis has an opportunity to strengthen a little bit more over
the next 12 to 24 hours, and the statistical-dynamical models show
this.  On the other hand, the HWRF suggests that Otis may have
already peaked.  The new forecast splits these scenarios and shows
Otis strengthening only a little more.  After that time, SSTs around
26 C and a drier environment should cause the tropical storm to
steadily weaken.

Otis has barely moved overnight, but should begin to slowly lift
northward later this morning.  Very little change was required to
the track forecast, and all of the global models continue to
indicate that the cyclone will slowly move into a break in the
subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  After about 72 h,
the remnants of Otis will likely begin to move west-southwestward
within the low-level tradewinds.  Although there is a fair amount
of spread on the exact heading Otis will take, there is good
agreement that it won't move much for the first 72-96 h of the
forecast, so confidence in that aspect of the forecast is fairly
high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 16.1N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 16.6N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 17.5N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 18.3N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 18.1N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:10:34 UTC