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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased
this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the
middle of the thunderstorm activity.  Based on the improved
organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass
overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt.

The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly
low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry
atmospheric environment.  These mixed factors should cause the
system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days,
though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm
during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is
expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path.  These
more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and
become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the
guidance.

The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering
currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should
turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves
along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system
loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Dec-2017 12:10:25 UTC