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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017

An ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression
has weakened a little bit.  Winds of only around 25 kt were present,
and since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don't believe
that undersampling is a big concern at this time.  The initial
intensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt.  It is beginning to
seem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at
any time.  The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only
support continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance
really shows significant strengthening.  Since the environment is
not expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity
forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime
between days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the
cyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little
sooner than that.

The depression has continued to drift slowly westward.  There is
no change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue
to show very little movement throughout the forecast period.  The
NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and
doesn't show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it
becomes a remnant low around day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:10:33 UTC