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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near
the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later.
This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a
convective minimum.  The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on
earlier ASCAT data.  Despite the lack of intensification so far,
most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will
become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days.  Only
the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so
far that has been a good forecast.  For now, my forecast continues
to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening
over the next couple of days.  Given the low shear and moderate
SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never
strengthens.

The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward
at about 2 kt.  Very little change has been made to the track
forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for
the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak
steering flow.  After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is
expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the
north.  A turn back toward the west should occur once the
subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4.  The NHC
forecast remains near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:10:33 UTC