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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017

A cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more
concentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the
shear has diminished.  However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that
the maximum winds remain 30 kt.  The lower shear and warm sea
surface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually
strengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has
been ingested into the circulation, that intensification will
probably be slow.  The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak
intensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest
model trends.  Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the
forecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface
temperatures.

The depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt.
The subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west-
southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time,
a break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward
through day 3.  A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the
cyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5.  There were
no significant changes required on this forecast package, and the
NHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:10:23 UTC