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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection
has decreased near the center of the depression.  That said, the
fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an
improvement compared to 24 hours ago.  The estimated intensity
remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications.  There is no change in the reasoning behind the
intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the
depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly
intensify.  The intensity forecast is still based on a selective
consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant
intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely,
given the current structure of the cyclone.

A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains
somewhat ill-defined.  My best estimate of the initial motion is
270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous
advisory.  Little change was required to the track forecast since
the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not
expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period.  The models
continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days,
followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge
begins to build to the northwest.  My forecast is close to HCCA, but
gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have
performed well for the depression so far.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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