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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (Text)


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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the
depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in
recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery.  A larger SW-NE elongated
circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that
the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger
cyclonic envelope.  In an absence of any other data to use, the
intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago.

Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some
intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the
shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm.  By the end of the forecast
period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should
cause the cyclone to begin to weaken.  No significant changes have
been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective
ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF.

Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial
motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt.
The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of
the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety
of the forecast period.  While the spread is fairly high, in general
the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north
of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48
h.  The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus
HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:10:21 UTC